Autumn rebuild gains traction into the winter market
Tanker earnings have firmed through the late-Q3 rebuild: VLCC and Suezmax rates are being carried by sustained Atlantic Basin liftings, US Gulf export strength and the ramp in Northern Hemisphere refinery runs ahead of winter. Product tankers remain the relative outperformer, with MR2 and LR2 still earning a premium on long-haul arbitrage and refinery dislocation flows. In dry bulk, Capesize continues to set the tone on iron ore and bauxite, while Kamsarmax and Ultramax are supported by the South American grain programme and steady minor-bulk demand. We read current levels as the front end of a seasonally stronger Q4 rather than a cyclical top.

